NAHB statistics show local housing markets improving
Of the approximately 350 metro markets nationwide, 59 returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity including one in the greater Salt Lake area, according to the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released last week.
The index’s nationwide score ticked up to .88 from a March reading of .87. This means that based on current permit, price and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 88 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 28 percent of metro areas saw their score rise this month and83 percent have shown an improvement over the past year.
“I think the big news here is that regions outside of the energy states continue to gain ground,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “We still expect 2014 to be a strong year for housing and to aid in the overall economic recovery. The job market continues to mend and with that we will see a steady release of pent up demand of buyers.”
The Ogden-Clearfield metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is lagging behind both the Salt Lake City and Provo-Orem MSAs in the housing recovery, but on a national scale is right at the average.
Ogden ranks 153rd out of the 350 metro markets. Its overall recovery is following the national trend at 88 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Provo-Orem ranks 80th with its recovery at 97 percent. Salt Lake ranks 58th and has reached 100 percent of normal economic and housing activity according to the index.
Ogden is lingering in permits, at only 42 percent, where Salt Lake has reached 61 percent and Provo is at 72 percent. Ogden’s and Provo’s prices have climbed to 126 and 125 percent of normal, while Salt Lake’s prices are at 142 percent of normal. Employment levels are at 94 percent of normal in Ogden and Provo and 96 percent in Salt Lake.
“The lack of permits along with price improvement shows there’s a continuing lack of development going on in our area,” said NWHBA CEO Warren Wakeland. “We have a high demand but short supply. The local governments need to start approving more lots for residential development.”
Baton Rouge, La., continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42—or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Smaller metros showing recovery continue to be dominated by the middle of the country experiencing an energy boom. Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, with their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession.
“Things are getting slowly better overall,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “And with the housing market now entering the spring buying season, the fact that the nation’s economy is headed in the right direction is a very promising sign.”
“Stronger employment numbers seemed to be the driving force this month—an important factor to the recovery of our economy,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Article courtesy of Northern Wasatch Home Builders Association
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